In 2022, Mumbai Indians became just the second team to finish 10th in an IPL season – before the campaign began, they were one of the odds-on favourites to add a sixth title to their collection. Despite boasting India’s premier pacer Jasprit Bumrah, national team skipper Rohit Sharma, and the best T20I batter in the world Suryakumar Yadav in their ranks, the team crumbled like never before, succumbing to 10 defeats in their 14 games including a losing streak of eight to kick off the season.

The simplest path to qualification, all Mumbai Indians need to do is win their remaining games and they’ll be guaranteed a top-three finish in the league since only Chennai Super Kings and Gujarat Titans can match their potential points tally of 18. In fact, Mumbai Indians can gun for a top-two spot as well and equip the safety net of Qualifier 1, if CSK lose one of their two games and GT endure defeats in both their remaining encounters.

Should the worst come to the worst for Mumbai in their remaining encounters, Lucknow Super Giants, Chennai Super Kings, and Gujarat Titans would be guaranteed to finish above them in the table, leaving just the final playoff spot up for grabs. For MI to end up clinching that berth, Rajasthan Royals would have to lose both their games since a win would take them level on points with MI and the former has a far superior net run rate of 0.140. However, one of RR’s encounters is against fellow contenders Punjab Kings, whose tally would surge to 14 points as well once they defeat Rajasthan. Thus, the side’s loss in their other game against Delhi Capitals becomes mandatory for MI’s qualification, with the five-time champions’ better net run rate the determining factor in their potential qualification.

Next are the Royal Challengers Bangalore, who are in s similar boat as RR after their massive 112-run win in the latest encounter. If RCB wins even one of their two remaining fixtures, their net run rate of 0.166 more or less ensures they would end up above MI in the standings, meaning they need to lose against both Sunrisers Hyderabad and Gujarat Titans. Meanwhile, SRH have already been handed wins against RCB and MI in this scenario, which would take them to 14 points as well. While that should not be a hindrance for MI given SRH’s net run rate of -0.471, a win for the franchise against Gujarat Titans would once again doom the Indians to a fifth-placed finish at best, therefore making a win for the defending champions against SRH the final necessity for Mumbai Indians to qualify.

A mixed finish to the campaign would see Mumbai Indians end on 16 points, thus directly eliminating RR, KKR, DC, and SRH from contention of overtaking them. The simplest way for Mumbai to qualify would be if Rajasthan beat Punjab in their last league-stage match of the season, which would only leave RCB and LSG in contention alongside MI for the final two spots. Thereon, if RCB lose any of their two remaining games, the side would finish on just 14 points, handing MI qualification to the playoff stage. However, if Punjab do end up winning against Rajasthan and thereby restrict themselves to 14 points, two separate scenarios branch out depending on who Mumbai win and lose against.

If Mumbai triumph against Lucknow Super Giants, the latter would be doomed to a maximum tally of 15 points – one short of MI’s tally. A similar scenario would occur if LSG defeat MI but lose to KKR. Thus, as long as SRH lose against any of RCB and GT or if their wins come by margins not substantial enough to go past MI’s, the five-time champions would end up in the top four regardless of how RCB fare in their games.