Before we delve into the tactics, let’s get some generic information out of the way.

What does India and New Zealand’s record at the venue look like?

New Zealand - No Tests played at the venue 

How have the two teams fared in England, of late?

New Zealand (since 2015): P4 W2 L1

The Kiwis, last week, became the first team in seven years to win a series in England.

Welp, the Kiwis won 2-0. It was played in New Zealand, yes, but each of the two Tests finished in under four days.

Okay, the aforementioned information suggests that the Kiwis will enter the one-off final not just as favorites, but arguably strong favorites. They also, unlike India, have had ideal match-practice heading into the final, having played two Tests in the country. So what is this game-plan and why do we think India stand a chance?

It is true that the odds are stacked in favour of New Zealand. But it is worth noting that the Kiwis made the WTC final solely based on their home dominance. In the WTC cycle, New Zealand astonishingly won a solitary away match. They were blanked 3-0 by an Aussie side that was later embarrassed 2-1 by a third string Indian side, and they only made the final in the first place owing to the pandemic-induced ‘percentage of points’ rule change. So while the 1-0 victory against England undoubtedly was impressive, there is little that suggests that this New Zealand side is one that’s impregnable. And, uhhh, mind you, this is again a side that is notorious for dropping the ball in big matches, having NEVER won an ICC Trophy to date. Their pressure-handling has been questionable, so back them at your own risk. 

The Gameplan

Ploy 1:  Torment the Top 6 with Ashwin

Post India’s 2-1 triumph Down Under, everyone in this universe not named Sanjay Manjrekar understood and realized the importance and excellence of Ravichandran Ashwin, and he will enter the WTC Final as Virat Kohli’s trump card.

And it happens so that the Kiwis have 3 batsmen in the Top 5 who are left-handers. One of whom (Henry Nicholls) has averaged 13.1 against off-spinners since 2019, being dismissed by finger-spinners 10 times in this period. Yes, most recently by Joe Root too. So Ashwin ‘IS’ dismissing Nicholls; that is inevitable.

And while we don’t have enough info on Devon Conway, yet, we do know that the last time this Kiwi line-up came up against a decent off-spinner (Nathan Lyon, in case you’re wondering), they fared like third-graders against express pace. Lyon, in 2019/20 against the Kiwis, averaged a mere 17.25 and ended as the highest wicket-taker in the series with  20 wickets, taking 5 more than any other Aussie bowler. New Zealand’s skipper and supposed best-player-of-spin averaged 10.00 in the series against Lyon, who himself was out-bowled and embarrassed by Ashwin in Australia’s very next series. 

Ploy 2: Try everything possible to send the openers back to the hut early; expose the brittle middle-order

On paper, a middle-order of WIlliamson, Taylor, Nicholls and Watling is a dream quartet: not only are they versatile and experienced, but they also have the numbers to back up their excellence. Prior to the England series, in the WTC cycle, together the middle-order averaged an astonishing 61.86, led by their skipper who struck two double tons. But there is a catch. 

But the challenge for India will be to get to this weakness, for which they’ll have to breach the openers. And as we witnessed in the England series, with Conway now integrated into the side, removing the Kiwi openers is no mean feat. 

So how can they do it?

Versus pace against deliveries bowled from round the wicket, Latham averages a mere 32.12 in stark comparison to 50.25 from over the wicket. And, likewise, against right-arm bowlers from round the wicket, he averages a mere 15.00 against inswinging deliveries, compared to 28.33 against outswingers. Twice against England the New Zealand vice-captain was pinned on the crease - from round the wicket - by Stuart Broad, who used the simple trick of bringing the ball back into the southpaw.

All four pacers in contention to play for India - Bumrah, Siraj, Shami and Ishant - are adept at bowling from the round the wicket, but Shami might just be Kohli and Co’s best bet against Latham. Versus left-handers, Shami not only is a master at bringing LBW and bowled into play, but an expert in doing so from round the wicket. Case in point, Latham’s dismissal in the first innings in Christchurch last year, when Shami nipped one back and rattled the southpaw’s off-stump. Interestingly, all 3 Latham dismissals in that series were from round the wicket. 

On debut Conway struck 223 runs across two innings, but it did not come without luck. The opener inside-edged the ball an astonishing 25 times, and notably chopped on in the second innings, in which he was conciscoulsy aiming to be proactive. This was, in part, due to his inherent tendency to attack, with him leaving just 19% of his deliveries in that double-ton. To put this figure into perspective, the average leave percentage for openers in England is 29%. 

So what can India infer from this? Two things: one, Conway loves to drive and two, he hates to leave. 

Another effective tactic which could work against the newcomer could be to rough him up and test him with short stuff. Wood, though not getting the better of Conway, did manage to rattle the southpaw with the bumpers: at Lord’s Conway played 33% false shots against balls shorter than 9m. The only express pace bowler India have up their sleeve is Jasprit Bumrah, but his accuracy dwarfing that of Wood means that Conway, who looked in discomfort against the bumpers in his first Test series, will have a hard time negating the right-armer. 

The key for India here, though, will be to be proactive with the change in tactics, and not let Conway settle. England were guilty of being too passive, and a repetition of the same will spell trouble for the Indians. 

1) India will need to be wary of the fact that, unlike in Australia, Pujara’s block-and-bore tactic might not be too effective in England. Unlike the Kookaburra, the Dukes still provides help aplenty for seamers post the first 30 overs and the same was evident in the first innings of Edgbaston where the Kiwis ran riot with a seemingly old cherry. This is not to say that Pujara will need to up his scoring rate, but, rather, Pujara spending time at the middle will not make life easy for the rest of the batters below him. 

2) The Indian lower-order should aim to exploit the Kiwis’ woes against the tail. Since the pandemic restart, lower order of  teams (7th wicket partnership and lower) have averaged 23.90 against New Zealand, 3 more than the global average of 20.76. The English lower order, even in the absence of Chris Woakes, Sam Curran and Moeen Ali, averaged 26.16 against the Kiwis, with all of Wood, Robinson and Stone frustrating the Blackcaps at different points in the series. Playing both Jadeja and Ashwin will certainly add more depth to the batting, and so there could be an avenue for India to hurt the Kiwis using lower-order runs.